By Joan Verdon, The Record, Hackensack, N.J. Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News
Oct. 9--Santa's big day is still 11 weeks away, but Jim Silver has already prepared his shopping list.
Santa better stock up on Hokey Pokey Elmo dolls, Barbie Cook With Me Kitchens and McDonald's McFlurry Makers.
Silver, publisher of The Toy Book, the leading trade publication for the toy industry, and co-publisher of Toy Wishes, a consumers' guide to best-selling toys, Wednesday released his annual list of holiday toys that are most likely to be sold out by Thanksgiving. Silver and other toy experts on Wednesday also predicted toy manufacturers and sellers will get their wish this year for a greener Christmas.
"We think the toy industry is going to have the best fourth quarter since the year 2000," Silver said.
Silver isn't going too far out on a limb with that prediction. For three years the toy industry has suffered through disappointing sales. Total sales increased in 2000, stayed essentially the same in 2001, and declined by 1 percent in 2002 -- tough figures for an industry that had grown to depend on sales increases in the 5 percent to 6 percent range.
Wall Street toy watchers are a bit more wary about how the holiday season will shape up.
Margaret Whitfield of Brean, Murray & Co. said that while the retail environment is showing signs of improvement, the Grinch that could steal hopes for a profitable fourth quarter is intense competition by discounters.
"We're seeing some predatory pricing by Wal-Mart. It's going to be very competitive," she said.
This is the fifth year Silver and the staff at Toy Wishes have compiled a list of "hot" toys. Manufacturers and retailers pay close attention to the list because Silver, and Toy Wishes writer and toy consultant Christopher Byrne, each do more than 100 television, newspaper, and radio interviews every November and December in which they present their favorite toys. Landing on the list is considered a guarantee of TV air time and other forms of free publicity.
The previous Toy Wishes lists have had a high accuracy rate after the final sales tallies.
Silver, who has been tracking holiday sales for two decades, said he has seen encouraging signs that this will be a merry Christmas for merchants, after poor sales early this year.
"The economy has started to get a little better," he said, and there are new toys that look like sure winners, which will boost toy spending.
He said toy sellers are already placing reorders for items that appear to be hot holiday sellers.
Silver usually issues a "Hot Dozen" list of 12 likely bestsellers. This year, he said, there were so many good candidates that he had to make his list a "baker's dozen" of 13 toys.
Among his picks are the Leapster Educational Game System by LeapFrog, a hand-held device about the size of a GameBoy with video games that teach basic skills.
"They will sell every single one of those that they can make," Silver predicted, saying kids who tested it couldn't put it down.
The other toys on the Toy Wishes list are:
-- Barbie Cook With Me Smart Kitchen by KIDdesigns, $129.99, a talking stove that tells kids how to cook plastic food and reminds them to clean up after themselves.
-- Barbie Swan Lake, Mattel, $19.99. Barbie dressed as Odette of the Swan Lake ballet. Her fantasy castle also available for $130.
-- Beyblade Remote Control Top, Hasbro, $34.99. A remote-controlled version of a popular spinning top game.
-- Care Bears Bedtime Lullaby Bear, Play Along, $24.99. An electronic update on a retro favorite, with battery-powered nightlight and lullaby built in.
-- Built to Rule Transformers, Hasbro, $7.99 to $29.99. Building kits to create vehicles that turn into robots.
-- Hokey Pokey Elmo, Fisher-Price, $29.99. An Elmo doll that can put his right paw in and shake it all about.
-- Bratz Formal Funk Runway Disco, MGA Entertainment, $99. A playset that lets Bratz dolls stroll on a motorized fashion runway.
-- LeapPad Plus Learning System, LeapFrog, $55.99. Teaches reading, writing, and math. The newest version of a popular education toy.
-- McDonald's McFlurry Maker, Spin Master, $24.99. Makes kid-size versions of a McDonald's ice cream dessert.
-- My Little Pony Celebration Castle, Hasbro, $34.99. Pampered plastic pony dolls in a pink castle.
-- Powertouch Learning System, Fisher-Price, $49.99. An educational toy for children ages 3-8 that spells words and teaches skills when the child touches a picture.
-- Neopets Voice Activated Plush, Thinkway Toys, $34.99. Talking, plush versions of the creatures that are an Internet phenomenon at neopets.com.
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(c) 2003, The Record, Hackensack, N.J. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News.
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